The 2025 elections put some wind in Democrats’ sails. What they portend for stronger climate policy isn’t clear just yet, since the winners focused on energy affordability first and foremost. Meanwhile, for those of us who seek stronger climate policy, the Trump Administration’s multi-front war on clean energy produces a daily stream of bad news for ratepayers and clean energy advocates.
The Biden Administration’s strategy of steering green energy investments to red states/districts — as a way of persuading Republican politicians to vote for strong climate or energy transition policies — doesn’t seem to have worked. Those politicians are happy to take credit for those investments in their districts or states, or to fight for them (rhetorically) when the Trump administration wants to cancel them. But they still haven’t shown an inclination to vote for policies pushing the energy transition in the future; to the contrary, a few months ago they voted to repeal most of those programs in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.[1]
Opposing Popular Policies
Since the passage of OBBBA, the Trump Administration has been trying to claw back money and cancel energy projects that were authorized under the Biden era Inflation Reduction Act. Last month the White House announced that it would “pause” multiple water projects in 12 blue states during the shutdown, presumably in keeping with the White House messaging that “Democrats” were to blame for the shutdown. That same day brought news that “Republicans are asking Energy Secretary Chris Wright not to block money for IRA projects in their states ….”
Another story that same week, entitled “What Trump’s victory taught Democrats about climate change,” quotes multiple congressional Democrats to the effect that emphasizing energy affordability is a better strategy than focusing on climate change. In the words of Senator Chris Coons (D-DE), climate is “not a top three issue right now,” in part because “American voters didn’t give the Biden-Harris administration and Democrats the credit we hoped they would for transformational investments in energy …”
And around the same time Speaker of the House Mike Johnson reaffirmed his earlier characterizations of the peaceful massive “no kings” protest marches as “hate America” rallies featuring “pro-Hamas and antifa” people, while President Trump’s TruthSocial account posted an AI-generated video of the president piloting a fighter jet and dropping feces onto marchers. Neither action prompted significant pushback from congressional Republicans.
Since then not much has changed. Yes, Marjorie Taylor Greene has sworn off toxic politics. But like Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney before her, her defection from MAGA-world did not prompt any sort of broader exodus. The crucial-but-inconvenient truth is this: until MAGA Republican voters or go-along conservative voters start to punish MAGA members of Congress at the ballot box, members will continue to oppose popular climate policies.
Consider Louisiana
Indeed, MAGA Republicans have shown that they will punish Republican politicians who stray from the MAGA agenda or rhetoric. Consider the predicament of Louisiana Republican Senator Bill Cassidy.
The cold reality is that Louisiana is more vulnerable to climate harms than almost any other state, thanks to its low elevation, loss of protective wetlands, and location in the path of hurricanes. This vulnerability is reflected in the fact that property insurers have been exiting the state, leaving Louisianans paying the second highest rates for homeowners’ insurance in the nation. If climate harms ought to be able to break through the wall of right-wing media messaging anywhere, Louisiana ought to be the place.
A Politico piece described Sen. Cassidy’s effort to “strike a balance between” promoting legislation imposing a carbon fee on imports and an administration that “calls climate change a hoax.” But another piece that same week described how Cassidy is being challenged from the MAGA right by Blake Miguez, a Louisiana state senator and owner of an oil services company. The article describes how the carbon fee bill “could hurt [Cassidy] in deep-red Louisiana,” and quotes Miguez’ explanation that he is running “because Bill Cassidy sucks.”
The Propaganda Machine is Powerful
For many Louisiana voters, news about climate impacts, insurance rates, and mortgage rates will be reframed by right-wing media in ways designed to build loyality to the GOP and/or to its MAGA wing. Many of those voters never hear other, more complete discussions of those issues.
While many Democrats accept that we live in a post-truth world, they may not accept the hard work that truth implies. They can’t quite believe, for example, that ICE officers really believe they are protecting American citizens from violent criminals by rounding up Hispanic immigrants, that GOP voters really feel threatened by the prospect of electing Democrats, or that many actually believe climate science is a “hoax.”
But chances are that for many those beliefs are sincere, because they are based in an understanding of reality that only barely intersects with Democrats’ understanding. So Democrats’ best hope is to focus on breaking the spell of the propaganda machine by talking to go-along GOP voters. More on that subject next week. — David Spence
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[1] Some ex-Biden Administration officials believe that the political theory behind the Inflation Reduction Act was never really tested because the administration rolled out IRA benefits too slowly. But none of the GOP members trying to save their district’s projects seems remotely likely to team with Democrats to vote for legislation saving those projects. In their solid red districts that sort of bipartisanship would look like apostasy to the MAGA voters who dominate primary elections.
