Suddenly we are seeing analyses of the Trump Administration’s Iran adventurism as a savvy way of reining in China. There may be a Trump advisor or two who is thinking that way. But when struggling to understand Trump decisions, people routinely ascribe to him way too much strategic acumen — indeed, too much thought. The Iran attack is more likely due to his instinctive taste for chaos and the feelings of power associated with attacking a weaker foe. He defaults to bold and chaotic distractions when things aren’t going well for him, just to change the conversation. If it serves some other purpose, that is an ancillary bonus.
The China strategy idea focuses on energy, specifically oil. Because China imports a lot of oil from both Venezuela and Iran, interruptions of those supplies hurt China. It is not clear how much of China’s true energy needs these wars deny to China. (Some say not enough to hurt; if it is enough to hurt, I worry for Taiwan — see the run up to Pearl Harbor.)
All of this is dangerous and unsettling, which hardcore MAGA voters traditionally like. But Trump Administration 2.0 seems far more unstable and volatile about energy policy, and most other policy areas.
During the first Trump administration, the term “kakistocracy” — government by the worst people – was thrown around in MSNBC circles to describe the new regime. But as the second Trump administration has shown us, the people who populated both the White House and the executive departments under Trump 1.0 were not “the worst people.“
Today the term is more apt. Our public health institutions are run by actual grifters, quacks, and anti-vaccine conspiracists, the Justice Dept by a truly unscrupulous and vengeful partisan hack, our FBI by an unqualified podcast bro, and our homeland security and immigration institutions by nativists who shield their homicidal underlings from prosecution, and dutifully follow the illegal instructions of Steven Miller, a truly nasty, damaged human being.
But things are a bit better on the energy side of things. At least our Secretaries of Energy and Interior are qualified to serve in their positions (by historical standards). Unfortunately, their willingness to implement the president’s vendetta against cheap renewable energy will make companies think twice about investing in the U.S., and will ease China’s path to dominance in the energy technology markets of the future. But those same officials also seem willing to support the development of clean firm sources of electricity like geothermal and nuclear, which may well make the United States’ transition to that future less expensive.[1]
But now the president’s instinct for chaos is causing more pain in energy markets. The war was only minutes old when the corollary war to shape the dominant narrative was launched online by courageous volunteers. Was the war all about gaining access to Iranian oil for American companies? A war to free people repressed by a brutal theocracy? The U.S. doing the bidding of Israel? An unauthorized, illegal foreign adventure? An overdue punishment of an international scofflaw? A distraction from the Epstein files? And now, a way to hurt China?
We won’t know for a while. But we can say for sure is that the Iran War will raise gasoline prices at the pump. It already is. How high those prices will go is anyone’s guess. However, given that parts of the country are already fuming about rising electricity prices, this will undoubtedly exacerbate the affordability crisis.
People always worry about the price of energy. And in these times of historic economic inequality,. especially so. So far the war is unpopular. But images of grateful Iranians freed from a truly brutal theocratic regime could change that.
My best guess is that higher gas prices will trump empathy for the oppressed in the minds of voters. But whether they will punish GOP politicians who line up behind the MAGA agenda every time they vote is anyone’s guess. – David Spence
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[1] This assumes that as the costs associated with climate change pile up, the goal of reducing carbon emissions will eventually garner some bipartisan support.
